secret-bar
22
Feb

I Changed My Mind: Avoid Oil Like The Plague

I have been away from the internets, blogging only once every so often – a sign of laziness and a divergence away from goals set earlier this year. In times like these I’m always tempted to say ‘I haven’t had the time’, but only cocksuckers of the highest order talk like that. We all have time – if you don’t, you just suck at managing it.

I turn my head for a jiffy and the oil markets are in shambles. Just last week I was shit-talking, parading around town, and now I’m getting my rear end lit the fuck up, on the receiving end of some harrowing losses. What the fuck is going on, you ponder?

See, the frackers, one of my favorite sectors in times of high crude prices, are seeing revenue increases of over 100% YOY, and paying out one time dividends because they can. Having said that, money doesn’t care about excuses and right now money is on the sell side – sending my beloved SLCA off by the tune of 15 fucking percent on some pretty decent earnings. I sold that shit with the same vigor and tenacity I had when I bought it and I am done with the whole fucking oil sector indefinitely. There is an acute weakness all around, even in big oil names. It was never meant to be a long term hold, but merely a trade – a trade that clearly did not work out and the least I can do is be genteel about it.

I have a thesis.

During the tenure of president Trump we are going to see a market crash – concentrated in coal, oil, infrastructure – all the things he claims to have ‘fixed’, because after a year of watching him it is clear to all of us he has no clue what the fuck he is doing. The economy is being artificially bolstered via makeshift policies by the ones in power who are weaving a delicate and complex web. Those strings could all unravel quickly with a few missteps and the cascading dominos that would ensue will cause a lot more collateral damage than most will expect. Make no mistake, the great orange president is immensely entertaining, but I bet there isn’t a single soul out there who doesn’t sense the bad ending to his story. Common sense tells me that’s how karma works.

Which is precisely the bullish argument for cryptocurrencies.

See, the core of cryptocurrencies is that they are built on the concept of decentralization; rendering them immune to the political shitstorm that unfolds on a daily basis. They are a way for people to bond with strangers, via the trusty computers in front of them, understanding that no single person or organization has the power to control or change anything. As long as there is distrust in this world, there will be a bid for cryptocurrencies.

What the fuck are you talking about, you ask?

The stock market is dead money. The gains have been made, and they have all been made in one concentrated area; mega cap tech. Those companies have been building the infrastructure for computers to take over, and that time is nearly here. If you are investing in oil, manufacturing, or god forbid retail, you are decades too late. Granted, there will be the odd biotech, tech, or pharma stock that takes off but at this point that’s anyones guess. Gone are the days of rational stock market investing where a man could confidently buy dividend paying stocks to retire off.

A lot of people, particularly in North America, are late in joining the crypto world. To most over there, it is a whimsical industry, built on the dreams of foreign nerds, designed to crash down harder and faster than it rose. Elsewhere in the world, this industry is very much real.

The reason is two fold. First off, it is very difficult for new accounts to be opened due to regulatory issues – a problem that exists in North America and nowhere else. This restricts new participants and when participants around you are few, the scale of the industry cannot really be felt. The second issue is that the invisible hands feel the disruptive impact blockchain technology will have on their power and want to keep it at bay for as long as possible. Elsewhere in the world, many governments are already giving in.

My investment thesis going forward will be 100% focused on cryptos. Yes, every single penny. That doesn’t mean I will be buying only crypto coins, per se, but there are also many ancillary plays in this industry that can be accessed through the stock market. Take DPW, for instance, a power appliance company who threw out their business model in favor of cryptocurrency mining. Or TEUM, folks in the telco space revolutionizing the industry with their own decentralized platform. Speaking of DPW, I just bought some at $1.82 – for the win, of course.

At the end of the day, I no longer feel comfortable invested in the stock markets, at least not right now. I can make a practically risk-free 10% every month, arbing between crypto exchanges while stockpiling my coin balance, or I can get my face ripped off via BETTER THAN EXPECTED EARNINGS that send a stock down -15% in 15 minutes. I know what the latter feels like and I think I’ll stay away.